Book Review - Stock Market Wizards (revised ver)

One of the most striking ideas you get from the book are the different kinds of traders that are successful in their own methods namely, quant, arbitrager, high probabilities trader, information traders minus the fundamentalists.

Ideas:

High probabilities trade - if a trade work 85% of the time, and risk/reward 1vs1, u still win

Arbitrager - if different countries different treatment to dividend tax, arbitrage

Team - psychiatrist, analyst, trader (very interesting setup)

Lessons:

The importance of catalysts for movements in stocks

Setting goals even in amounts made

Trade Setup

Consolidating some of the trade setup here.

bull flags,

You want to find a confluence of support at a key moving average (usually the 20 period EMA) and also a Fibonacci retracement, usually the 50% retracement. This will increase your odds of a successful trade, and also allow you to take a potentially larger position as a result of a tighter stop.

RSI system - Bill Cara (mostly for extreme case)
FAs most of you know, my simple RSI system shows Accumulation and Distribution Zones when the RSI-7 is below the 30 line for the Monthly, Weekly and Daily data series and above 70 for the same. But a Buy Alert for a short-term oriented trader is when the Daily RSI-7 pops back up over 30, if confirmed by similar RSI turnabouts in similar stocks. For an intermediate-term oriented trader, there should be a crossing of the 30 line in both Daily and Weekly RSI-7 data, and for a long-term oriented trader, the crossing of the 30 line should happen in the Daily, Weekly and Monthly.

Exuberance trade ( shall name it this way)

1. For counters going panic buy or sell with a set of criteria belows:

- traded out of bollingerband 20 to increase the odds of exuberance

- chart show breakout/down without consolidation especially if early morning trade

- traded above a round figure resistance (for e.g. 2.60) or depth showing mini sellers/buyers for breakout/down respectively.

2. Short/Buy on countertrend with a stop only 2 bids

3. Buyback at depth showing nobody buying or selling

This is a high probabilities trade, risk to reward is thin, 1 to 1. If i have time, i attached a chart to show how it works

Market Review

Just back from break, seem like a good one, or else will be whipped more by the mkt.

I am not entirely bullish but the sideways consolidation can be a likely scenario for the next thrust. Market can consolidate through correction or time and it is doing the latter in many sectors.

In the events we are going to break, here are a few for breakout play. But as always watch your risk, especiallly a failed breakout, :)

Straitsasia
Goldenagri
Pac Andes
Olam
Wilmar
Ho Bee
Wingtai
Allgreen
UIC

I am thoroughly disappointed during these few months, although i am still up 77% average for the year on all my accounts. And to continue research in a systematic way, i should put up what I am going to do in scrutiny of my very few readers..

1. To read 1 book a month if i can get my hands on
Frost, A.J. and Prechter, Robert R., Elliott Wave Principle, Tenth Edition
Edwards, Robert D. and Magee, John, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, 9th Edition
Kaufman, Perry J., New Trading Systems and Methods, 4th Edition
Kirkpatrick, Charles D. and Dahlquist, Julie R.: Technical Analysis The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians, Pearson Education
Nison, Steve, Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, 2nd Edition
Pring, Martin J., Investment Psychology Explained
Pring, Martin J.: Technical Analysis Explained, 4th Edition
Aronson, David R.: Evidence-Based Technical Analysis

2. For those aspired TAs who want to win buy and hold, win this game first http://www.chartgame.com/ Don't say not enough indicators or can only buy/sell on closing/opening. Beat it.

3. To do quant testing on market
- I am not that keen on above as there are numerous resources out there that can do a better job than me, the only disadvantage is that lack of such data in sg.

Shorts

With Dow cycle projected around 10,374, we might have around 7-8days of uptrend to work with:

Longs

Guocoland

SMRT

Noble - 2nd day consolidation, 3rd day decide

Shorts

UOB 18.22

Ezra 2.00

rotary 1.10

wingtai 1.73

Continue Observations

Mar- Jul Breath & Vol goes in hand. Overbought get overbought. Oversold with fierce rallies Chart formation work best: bullflap, ascending, flat consolidation breakout

Aug - Sep Vol goes to pennies, high for many stocks achieved. Short of failed breakout have to wait 1day Momentum trade for the pennies (which i got to learn, especially those breakout for 2-3days pennies)

Oct - Nov Where shall it be? Oversold get oversold? Overbought with fierce selldown?

Uptrend line breakdown seem to be slower than flat consolidation breakdown (when it flip it upside down, u get it)Weak get weak, strength beget strength

Breakout list

Financial One - 0.50

Macarthurcook industrial -0.42

Sinwa - 0.52

Super coffeemix - 0.675

biosensors??

Engro - 0.91 hmm...



longtime never see this list rite.ya.. small size

Largest % rally in STI without correction

Classifiy them as huge range

Apr 1990 - 1109 - 41%, 13mths
May 1991 - 1565

Oct 1992 - 1333 - 77%, 4 mths
Feb 1993 - 2366

Nov 2001 - 1332, 35%, 4mths
Mar 2002 - 1801

1998 rebound rally
===============
Aug 1998 - 862 - 79%, 5mths
Jan 1999 - 1547

Correction of (1504-1362) - 10%, 1mth

Feb 1998 - 1362 - 60%, 5mths
Jul 1999 - 2175
=================

Bull market 2003
=================
May 2003 - 1300 - 44%, 12mths
Feb 2004 - 1884

Correction of (1895-1700) - 11%, 1-2mths

May 2005 - 1700 - 56%, 12mths
May 2006 - 2659

Correction of (2659-2367) - 13%, 1-2mths

Jun 2006 - 2367 - 55%, 12mths
Jul 2007 - 3635
*slight correction at on Feb07

Correction of (3633-3322) - 9%, 1 mth

Jul 2008 - 3635 - 7%, 3mths
Oct 2008 - 3900

Notice something very interesting, % of gain, mths, correction move in unison until the last rally breaks the trend
=================

Mar 2009 - 1440, 87%, 7mths
Oct 2009 - 2700

Number besides is % gain, number of mths achieved, eyeball test, by definition of correction means 10% from the high.

Market Reviews

Didn't know I didnt blog for 2 weeks, was gathering research since market was flat, now that range extension has taken place, topping process continue.. now i sound like a broken record... haha...

Previous resistance was at 2750, but there is a higher chance we will hug the previous broken uptrendline for a blow-off. The soonest we touch that line, we had it.

Long

Guocoland (bear flap, buying on RSI, gap 2.16)

Indo (valid for blow off above 1.80)

Noble (gunning for all-time intraday high of 2.70)

Wilmar (nice consolidation, gap at 6.75)

Ezra (vol??)

hi-p (breakout)

Suntec (breakout)

Yzj (look like shorting covering today, and of course, becos if shorted it, see how consolidation)

Short list:

Capland (only valid tmr for a gapup of more than 5cents)

Olam (going for a blow off hugging uptrendline, ard 2.80)

Rotary (Short above 1.20, cover old high)

Parkway

set your own stop

Market Reviews

Market has been range-bound for the couple of mths, make me probe about the possible change of strategy, previously strategy works well if I do really religiously follow it

My own P&L equity curve serves me as the best indicators, when breakout failed, mostly we are profit taking or range-bound. When short setup failed, most likely still in period of consolidation. But just a summary to what going on now:

Mar- Jul

Breath & Vol goes in hand

Chart formation work best: bullflap, ascending, flat consolidation breakout

Aug - Sep

Vol goes to pennies, high for many stocks achieved.

Short of failed breakout have to wait 1day

Momentum trade for the pennies (which i got to learn, especially those breakout for 2-3days pennies)

Oct -

Where shall it be?

Uptrend line breakdown seem to be slower than flat consolidation breakdown (when it flip it upside down, u get it)

I am working on a set of indicators to determine the market strength on which phase we are in.

1. Z call

2. STI weekly chart - above 10EMA

3. STI component charts - number of stocks above 20EMA

4. Breath of stocks- which i am still thinking how many days should i put

Alright pls comment though i guess most of you will be more interested in what is below:

Shorts:

Capitaland: 3.72 (should at least threaten the previous low at 3.50)

Swiber: 0.92

Kepland: 2.82 (shorted too early, this should be the price)

Olam: 2.50

Ho bee: 1.50

Ezra:1.95

Sembmar: 3.20

Ausgroup: 0.74

First target of STI- 2,580, 2500

by now should know the number besides is the cutloss pt, entry is only useful for determine your risks

Market Reviews

Prop are joining the banks nearing uptrendline. But the most troubling thing for any correction will be US continuing strength in breath and adv-decline.

went on too short when shuld just apply the strategies mapped a while ago.

stops
DBS - 13.20 (trendline), 13.00 (breakout pt)
Yangzijiang - 1.06
Chinaaoil - 1.23

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-mother-of-all-momentum-thrust-years-2998.html

http://www.kirkreport.com/09/sp_oscillator_9_17_09.gif
http://www.kirkreport.com/09/battleforsept.gif

Market Reviews

As much as I am downside bias, I will give doubt to a "triple top" in the STI. Time is running out for the bears, it has to show this week or breakout to 2,750 will be the likely case.

Shorts -Sectors that are shortable if breakdown

Commodities (surprised, surprised, where the inflation talk)?

Banks

China

Long

Properties

hyflux

hyfluxwater

sarin - only valid tmr

sinotel

last note: in the event we break pass 2700, i will fade the strength

Market Reviews

I will still maintain the same strategies as mentioned in previous posts unless change of trend is quite clear

prop still look pretty ok with no serious damage, a few lower lows, rest of sectors look neutral

Shorts:

All 3 banks testing uptrend line

chinaaoil - i love to short this guy, but range it first

Commodities look weak - indo, i choose straits but the cutloss is too far

Sembmar still look gd as a short with 3.2 as cutloss

Longs

epure - waiting for tick up

hyflux - see how it how 2.80

singtel at 3.06 on valid tmr

genting - see how this guy hold 0.995

ho bee - see how 1.30

Market Reviews

Sorry a bit busy but recently make me look at the rules again.

1. Obey my cp, ep, tp, and not affected by how people should look at your end trades.
2. Obey ur pre-plan route
3. Do not be influenced by what surrounding says

4. Do not be late for opening

5. Do not anticipate the trend

6. Listen to the market

Blues are not moving, volume went to the pennies, not a healthy sign of the market. But not a good time to swing short but to fade extreme move at low volume.

Strategies current

1. As mentioned, fade extreme moves at low volume, failed breakout, failed breakdown on intraday

2. Scale down position size, widening the stops, minimise whipsaws.

3. Leverage 1:1 on any blues, play 20% on pennies run

bullish

K-reit

mapletreelog

parkwaylifereit

sgx

pac andes

all the china s chips

e-pure

Hi-P

oceanus

bearish

indo

sembmar

yes, not much shoortr

Market Reviews

Got my wisdom tooth out and sick last week, missing in actions.

Was scanning through the list and I was surprised to find more bullish setups.

Here they are
China is exhibting formation, with volume in, couples may fly:
China energy, china milk, china xlx, china fish

Commodities (still my fav sector)
Wilmar
Straits
Rotary

Jardine C, gentings, midas, rafflesedu,MCL land, parkway on list

Prop
Kepland
Wingtai
Spland

Starhub (Fav now)




Personally tho, guts feel is a topping actions, be careful out there

Market Reviews

Possible Longs

Mapletree log

Yanlord

Hi P

Stats chip

f&n

ST eng

ascendareits

some sectors move look exhausting - prop, comm

will be scaling down on longs

Breakout list

Here you goes again:

- NOL: 1.70

- F&N: 3.98

- RafflesMG: 3.96
- Swiber: 0.92

- KS energy: 1.20

- Kep T&T - 1.47

- ARA

- UIC

- Olam

- Straits

- Sembcorp

Seem commodities turn now

i need a machine to stockscreen breakout, this is tiring.

Here u goes

Doing a post mid of the week when I have sometime to refresh myself physically

10days of gains, chase the price? :)

high lists

- Wilmar

- Ascottreits

- cambridge

- CDL Htrust

- falconenergy

- hl finance

Breakout list

- First Resources

- NOL

- ascendasreit

-CWT

-hongguo

- lian beng

- manhanttan resources

Penny

- C&G

- yongnam

argh... so many dun do liao...

Musings

Ah.. been a terrible week for shortists and here i am, with a personal reviews

1. Obey my cp, ep, tp, and not affected by how people should look at your end trades.
2. Obey ur pre-plan route
3. Do not be influenced by what surrounding says

4. Do not be late for opening

5. Do not anticipate the trend

6. Listen to the market

Out of those above, main mistake was definitely 6, market was telling me on Mon, Tues with surprisingly good internals (strong advancers vs few) but i refuse to listen.

No doubt this can be a complex topping action

Here goes the market

Whether this rally have legs will much depends on next week,

Any first downside - 2,390, next few level will be 2,350 and finally 2,318 (the wonderful candle that negate 2 gaps at 1 time)

Upside potential will be 2,620 but the real test come in at 2,720 and that's will be a true test of faith

Sector

China:

China energy - waiting for breakout

Chinaaoil - waiting for 1.16

Cosco - above 1.2+

Yangzijiang - above 0.80

Midas - above 0.82

Commodities & Marine

Firstresour - 0.70

KS energy - a retest of 1.08 will have me long

Noble,straits - slight chance

kepcorp - look nice

Prop

HPL: 1.66+

Mis

Parkway - 1.70+

UOL - gd support at 3.20

Let the rain fall

We are setting up for some nice shorts if not because of the strength of the index by the banks & singtel.

S&P is oversold and due for a bounce. A positive open will have me let the rain falls on all sectors.

Market Reviews

Cover some shorts for miniature gains

Many counters setting up in apex triangle or sideways pattern. It will be interesting how it will unfold.

Pennies got strength, blues are ranging. Will we have strength.

Will be on reservist till next wed, guess I will be sidelines, observing, let them break.

Shorts

Stops:
Chinaaoil - 1.19
F&N - 3.94
Ho bee - 0.87
Indo - 1.32
Yangzijiang - 0.815
Wingtai - 1.48

commodities still strong, i m surprised

Target for Correction

From Gann

Dates and level of retracement from historical projections

Beginning Jul - 740

Beginning Jul - 778

Mid Jul - 800

Mid Jul - 833

End August - 700

Mid Sep - 700

Market Reviews & Rattling

With a 4 days down, STI is bullish on a short-term, but I am not betting on long side unless for some scalp trades.

We need to see whether we feel 2,315 gap by tmr or mon or else selling will continue

Banks/properties on rebound due to beaten down.

Thinking how to rally clients to trade as a whole, tho they still have their own feel about stocks. feel.... hmmm

Shorts

First line of defence: STI rising 20EMA - 2270

2nd line which I think this is where the correction will end, 50EMA

Shorts covering:

ChinaAoil - i am surprised at how limited downside, should have shorted the hell out of it

1.06 to threaten the lower low, :)

Rotary - will be interesting to see how it reacts with 0.58 (breakout pt), i prefer coveirng at 0.51

Allgreen - 0.81 (that will take sometime)

Ho Bee - Didnt know i short so gd price, 0.75 rising 20MA

Wingtai - Shouldnt have too much downside, see how it reacts with 1.20

UOL - bring my amno to bring down this guy, no 3.00 no cover

Genting - 0.64

UOB - 14.0 i doubt it can stand

OCBC - 7.00 i doubt it can stand too

Banks holding well in US now, last to selloff ?

Potential shorts

Charts, charts, charts

Alright, finally nua enough to put in some reviews:

Yes, i am bearish, but some charts look bullish,... hmm

Bullish

Midas - too textbook perfect ascending triangle, I will not take it unless fail breakout

China milk

Bearish

Yangzijiang - stop at high,

Rotary - look like island reversal

Properties

Commodities and marine are the tricky ones, have to wait for confirmations

Market Review

Just to put a note to some my dear readers.

Indicators/some guts feeling are market will be going through weeks of selldown/sideways to workoff its negative divergence 

Though there maybe some individual rallies but the majority part of it is too risky to put to it.

Rattling

Yes, been a little bit busy with admin and admin and admin, but yes i am still around.

Anyway got a chat with rallyartist and exchange some ideas to blog it down;

1. Price consensus

basically price move in a trend in high volatility period until it develops into low volatility whereby a new trend (reversal or continuation may develop)

2. Time delay,

it naturally strikes me as being opposite the supposingly desired direction of the trade but rallyartist mention it may not be so.

3. z 2nd entry still can enter which is quite unique to me

4. Magnet trade( from bo yoder)

A strong moving average like 200MA will normally have the power to suck it up

5. Failed Technical setup

This strikes me more recently especially in event like what if formation fail, do we trade opposite technically

6. Reversal

Mon or Tues?

Market Reviews

Been a bit busy, sorry couldn't update, looking at the index stocks, seem like we have some consolidation for a little while.

Let them consolidate and let the midcap raise.

Stops
YZJ - 0.66
Midas - 0.59
Rafflesedu - 0.450
Capitalrchina - 0.955
KS energy - 1.20
Suntecreit - 0.86
Ascendasreit - 1.47
Kep T&T - 1.40

Shorts
OCBC - 7.10
Allgreen - 0.78

i am surprised no real sectoral weakness, guess is stock picking time

Stops and

Capitaland - 2.60
Statschip - 0.40
Suntecreits - 0.71
yzj - 0.47
wingtai -0.83
Capitarchina - 0.775

doesnt look very strong to me

Reversal vs Retracement

Got an interesting video from bandit

rounded top - reversal

straight or down - retracement

Stops

Yangzijiang -0.43, stop 0.43
F&N - stop 2.38
Statschip - stop 0.35
Gentings - 0.57 target - stop 0.62,
Capitaland - 2.40, stop 2.35
CapitalRchina - 0.69 stops
Ascendasreit -
note Tat hong, ASL marine

STI - 1783- 1830
1760 - fibonacci, 38%
R- 1830, 1850

Counters & Stops

ASL marine - .48
Swiber - 0.45
Macquninfra - 0.30
Raffleedu - 0.38
SC global - 0.50
UOL - 2.00

Fight it out

Market hovering around major resistance, let them fight it out. Quite possible to fade any breakout or down in such case.

I am going to take some time off trading to train on some trading psychology matter

1. Review on entry, exit, trailing, position sizing.

Stops

Yangzijiang - 0.49
Cosco - 1.00
Straitsasia - 0.96
Rafflesedu - 0.415
Midas - 0.52
Sembmar - 2.30
Suntereits - 0.61

Note:
Genting - 0.60
OCBC - 5.88
Reits - maple, Kreits

Seem like challenging the high we have this year, 1,922 - 1,958. on the downside we have 1,830-1,852

Prep

cosco - 0.975
sembmar - stops at high
gentings- 0.60

Prep

what can I say if mkt prove me wrong, follow the trend, luckily got only 1 short recognising primary trend

First R - 1867, 1912
2nd R - 1938
First S - 1800
2nd S- 1700

Yzj - 0.435 stop, 0.515, 0.535
OCBC - cover back

Note
Midas - 0.50 stops
Straitsasia - 0.88, 1.00
rafflesedu - 0.39. 0.45
banyan - 0.35
SP land - 3.10
ASL Marine - 0.46

Stops & a story

Update
Gentings - 0.555
Noble - 1.17
Kepcorp - 5.00, tho 4.87 will be a better stop, gap 5.30-5.45
Citidev - 5.35 stop, gap 5.72-80

The banker who said no
http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/03/banking-andy-beal-business-wall-street-beal.html

There is always exception in this world, ponder ponder

Prep

Update: read through and did a bit of analysis, seem that might be facing off some resistance soon.
Target move for STI:

We might move beyond the breakaway gap on 08Jan but the market will prove itself

In the event that market consolidate at 1800+ level, the senario as painted on the chart will be, I will believe 1,608 as the start of the push will not be likely to be broken in the next retest and that's how we know whether this bull is real.

Kepcorp - support 5.20, midpt 5.50, stop at 5.94

OCBC - Resistance 5.40, 5.20, stop at 5.00

Capitamall - Resistance 1.45, 1.42, stop at 1.25

StraitsAsia - Resistance 0.90, 0.865, stop at 0.80

Cosco - stop at 0.82, resistance at 1.00

Sembmar - support 1.76, 1.86, stop at 2.07

More stops

Cosco - 0.885
Sembmar-1.85
NOL - 1.20

Setup

Updating the trailing stops

Capitaland - 2.50
Citidev - 5.40
Indo - 0.62
Kepland - 1.50
Noble - 1.25
OCBC - 5.00 (waiting for it, or else 4.90)
Parkway - 1.20
F&N - 2.50 (waiting for it
Yanlord - 1.20
Yangzijiang - 0.40

John D. Rockefeller

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller
Got reference from a christian bro about this guy, quite fasinating in terms of real wealth, but it seems as the bible says too, the old are not remembered.

Watchlist

Capitalcommercial - 0.80 cp, a bit wide cut
Parkway - 1.08cp
NOL, banks, F&N watch it

today miss a few ride on hongkongland, parkway, no more

STI
resistance - 1,740, small gap there, 1,776.
support 1,664

Market Reviews

Touchdown resistance.

Pretty hard to determine the next line of resistance unless naturally is 1,800, support at 1700.
In any case, here are the shorts
F&N - 2.51 day low, 2.74 resistance
OCBC - 4.92 day low, 5.13 resistance
Sembmar - 1.76 day low, 1.92 resistance
Note is a countertrend move

Prep for Session Tmr

STI 1,754 resistance, STI 1,723 ystr high, 1,680 ystr low, 1,664 support

In the event that DJI rally

STI open flat, up to test 1,723 and fail
STI open 1,723 and sell to 1,706 then 1,680 and fail to test gap
STI open up 1,723 and rally up 1,754

2nd scenario more likely or similar event
SGX - 5.14, believe it stuck between 5.00 - 5.20, (trailing 5.00)
Capland - 2.60 measured move

Market Reviews

New bull? see how it retrace

I can view my twitter updates on the blog at your work place, a little strange i can't view it at home though

Market Reviews

Up against resistance at 800, retracement to 750. Come on, sellers.

Puny STI with a downtrendline, range is tight, risk/reward not so favourable

Twitter Updates

Finally get twitter up, wanting to do away with trades taken page because too troublesome.

Market Reviews

US seem to easy, shooting star with overbought conditions,
If it really sell:

S&P - 734 then 721 second level, lower will be retest the low
STI - 1,556 then 1,524 and below will retest the low

If it rally, which really stand a chance
S&P - 800
STI - 1,630

Rattling

Just back from IT show, crowd mood is more discouraging than last yr, contracian indicator? Damned shagged, sorry for the lack of updates and quite distorted Trades Taken page (due to the lack of updates), thinking.... how to make it more up to date though.

Anyway, I will be in twitter more often now, justfollow me as id: dongtrader overthere.

Just a peep to the market, seem like we can't fill the gap at 1,580 even for today, should i turn bearish

Market Reviews

Bounce not been broad-based and volume is average, in terms of price action rather is pretty much neutral. Rights rumours continue to flood the market.

Few scenarios for tomorrow:
1. US bounce, SG gapup to 1,540+ and consolidation day
2. US bounce, SG gapup to 1530+ touch 1,513 and sell
3. US bounce, SG gapup to 1,540+ and fill the gap to 1,588 trendday
4. Nothing happens

Realise the trade-taken maybe given me a check, for the winlose% of it. Psychology wise stil to be self-control to reiterate the importance of expectancy of trading and not rather the winlose% of it

If you lose consecutive 10trades, with $100per trade, is $1,000
If you win consecutive 5trades with $200 per trade, is $1,000 too,

Let your winner run, cut your losers short.

Market Review

Market continue to sell, but it seems to me less than a crash, nevertheless, i guessed a snapback will not be too far from here. Update:

F&N ep 1.93, cp 1.86, tp -20ema
UOB measured move should be ep 7.8, cp, 0.20down, tp -20ema
SIA eng - get longterm chart on hand
SPH - touch support,

Market Review

Market remains treacherous on both US and SG, what has normally been historical edges in determining intermediate bottom has remained unwarranted in this environment. What is notable is still the weakness in properties but strength in commodities and oil related.

Of course, mkt revert to the mean if it is too stretched. But the difficulties part is to set very tight stops

F&N - enter on 2.00, cp -1.96, tp - 20ema
Sembcorp - enter on 2.04, cp - 2.00, tp - 2.14(downtrend line)
SGX - enter on 4.20, cp- 4.16, tp-20ema, 4.36+ (downtrendline)
Citidev - enter on 4.23+, cp 4.20, tp, 4.6(downtrendline) - seem like touching longterm support
UOB - enter on 9.00 (breakout steepdowntrend) , cp - 8.82, tp - gap or 20ema

Bollinger Band Test2

Going to test the bollingerband trading on mean reversion.

A few observations, counters tend to touch bollinger band on first rebound and may sell further. Thus, F&N buy on 2.38 and sell on 2.48 was actually a correct move

Trades Taken

Just a mention to F&N since I am testing on a strategy on bollinger band

Enter on outside of bollinger band by
-Either Opening/Closing/Intraday,
- Enter on stock > 6.5% drop exceeding BB (1)
- Enter on >4% beyond touch of BB line (2)

Enter on below calculation
Closing prev 2.5

Line on bollinger 2.5
Percentage (1) :0.04800

Percentage (2) :0.04800
Favourable price:2.38

Yes, but right the favourable price should be 2.38.

Position Sizing

The reason why the P&L for trades taken is in absolute amounts, rather than % is due to the minimum bid structure in SGX

For <$1, 0.005 per bid
For >$1, 0.01 per bid
For >$10, 0.02 per bid

Which means if % is used for calculating between $3 stock and a $1, P&L will be skewed towards $1stock if I gain/lose 0.10each for both counters.

Given P&L in absolute amounts, whether your entry size is 10lots or 2 lots, the results will be easily compared. But there is slight note to be taken especially comparing results <$1 and >$1

Trendday vs Consolidation

How do we recognise a trend day from consolidation.

1. Whether gap is filled during 1hr30min?
If yes - trendday
If no - consolidation

2. When all counters at a certain direction during opening? (Usually after 2-3consolidation)
If yes - trendday
If no-consolidation

Never sell your counter in an uptrendday, vice versa

Nice articles

What marks out the few managers who made money last year is that, like Soros and his ilk before them, they took big macro bets on the state of the world. Indeed, Hedge Fund Research found that ‘macro’ managers — who take massive positions on the movement of currencies, commodities and interest rates — made an average of 5 per cent last year, whereas the average hedge fund lost more than 18 per cent.

There is no real mystery about that, and nothing strikingly novel. In a bull market, all kinds of clever, debt-fuelled strategies make money. In a bear market, only a very few, very gutsy investors survive. The money managers who can get away from the herd, who do their own research, who don’t mind taking contrary positions and, most of all, get their timing right, are the ones who do well in tumbling markets. Any successful financier over the past couple of centuries could have made the same point. But the lessons are re-learnt in each business cycle. And the people who learn them best become the voices to be listened to for the next cycle — which is why we can expect to hear a lot more of the likes of Paulson, BlueGold and Mulvaney in the years to come.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/print/the-magazine/business/3346121/the-men-who-called-the-markets-right.thtml

Trades Taken Post

You would have noticed the new "trades taken" column on the right

1. Instead of giving % gain or loss, I will switch to dollar value due to SGX minimum bid sizing

2. Reasons for trades taken, exit and mistakes made will be made I guess once a week or twice, depending on frequency of it

Wilmar@3.11

-Anticipation of failure of breakout of uptrendline

First short was done at 3.14 with decending triangle on intraday chart, initially wan to short more at 3.11 but impatient when it breakdown to 3.08, avg 3.11 Covering done at 3.04 was right for breakeven but 3.05 was mistake when wanting it to run.

SGX@3.21

-Anticipation of breakout of trading range

Price hovering near breakout line but tradeback, should wait for volume to pickup

Biosensors@0.38

-Weak volume breakout, reaching upper band of bollinger band

Short nicely at 0.38, cover for breakeven at 0.37, leave rest to run. Note: must be cautious as counter on short-term uptrend, target will be 0.35 for 20MA

Sembcorp@2.15

Anticipating breakdown of support, lower highs (is a hedge against SGX due to whipsaws)

Market Review

Can the S&P support hold? next stop will be 800 and Nov low will be threatening.

Asian Markets have a wide discrepancy to the US, and looking at the STI weekly below, we can see we have been ranging for 2mths. First hurdle to cross will be the 20MA, to see whether it is a basing actions.

Market Updates

As expected, market drifts for the last couple of days, US S&P forms a symmetrical triangle which is usually a continuation price action, Nov low of 750 or Dow 7,500 will be in danger of breaching. That level will put US index below 2002/2003 bottom and severly damages the technical picture.

On a brighter note, Asians mkt although has breached the uptrend line but (HSI, Nikkei, STI, SSE) had held their higher lows. Price level for us to watch will be STI 1,575 which will give raise to the chance of forming a new low.

Mixed Pic

Its pretty much a mixed pic, market feel like breaking down mood but i guessed the impending news are holding them back. But what is more puzzling are US are near its low but asians mkt are holding its higher low though not making any new high.



Levels to watch in STI are 1,588 support, 1,800 as resistance and the uptrendline.

I am Bearish but surprised

Market Review

==============Comments===============================

Capitaland rights issue has been circulating for some weeks now.
C-Land, at $2.36, is trading at a large 34% discount to book NTA of $3.60 per share, which in turn raises the following questions:-
As at end Sept ’08, C-Land has total Borrowings of $10,440.5 mln; $4,209.66 mln Cash and $10,767.0 mln of Shareholders Funds.
Singapore reits are likely to take the cue from their counterparts in the US, who are expected to pay dividends with shares rather than cash, having been given the go-ahead by the US internal Revenue Service (our equivalent of IRA). By so doing, the US Reits are expected to save US10bln which can be used to pay down their borrowings. The banks would put pressure on S-Reits to do so, especially those with much refinancing to do this year. One strategy is to wait for someone to take the lead, before taking a more aggressive stance in picking up S-Reits. =================================================================
Technically, still trapped within 50EMA and downtrend line, my guess we will drift a while.

Introduction to Trading - Course

May I present the following:

Introduction to Trading and Risk Management

• Introduction


• Components in trading
  
• Fallacies of the market and the right psychology


• Expectacy Ratio


• Trade Management
  
• 2-2 Management


• Position Sizing
  
• Trade Journal
  
• Put to practice

1. One-to-one course, or group over a session of 3hours.


2. 50+ ppt slides with descriptions and notes


3. Venue at office or customer chosen locations.

Course fee is $128 and timing based on customer's schedule. Interested parties please contact me at 90402317 or email to kargay@gmail.com

Technical Analysis
I will be able to conduct but prefer it to be covered by my friend http://www.rallyartist.com/. Unless requested, course fee will be on a case-by-case basis.

New look

Going to change the look of the blog soon,

going to brainstorm a bit and throw in some ideas

1. Intro
2. Blogs I read
3. Newsletter
4. Opening bell, trades of the week,
5. Research
6. My courses

feedback pls.. if anyone out there is still reading..