DONG DONG

the-ten-crash-commandments/

2011-09-22T20:34:00.000-07:00

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2011/09/22/the-ten-crash-commandments/

1. Acknowledge that its a crash. Once we're past down 10% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from wherever the peak was (yes, the Dow is a way better crash gauge than the S&P 500), you can stop saying correction and start saying crash. Better to be wrong in hindsight on the nomenclature.

2. Pencils Down! Whatever trendlines or individual stock research you were working on needs to be shelved for the moment. Your drawings and calculations will not work here. If you happen to buy a stock and it rips higher, it will not be because of your research, it will be because the market went up. Correlations always get jiggy in crashes, stocks become commoditized like bushels of wheat that must be liquidated regardless of the underlying businesses.

3. Don't listen to "stockpickers" or sell-side equity analysts. They are only looking out from within their own little bubble and they cannot comprehend the other little bubbles around them let alone the whole bathtub. Anyone covering specific stocks needs to know when the macro gyrations trump whatever earnings they've estimated or the conference calls they've listened to. There'll be a time to "know your stocks" but this ain't it.

4. Ignore the asset-gatherers and the brokerage firm strategists, their job is to calm markets and soothe investors. Let's say Morgan Stanley runs $1 trillion in stock market wealth for investors. And then let's say they felt there was serious trouble ahead. Do you really think they would ever make the sell call? Can Morgan Stanley really say "Sell 20% of your equities"? No. Because that would be $200 billion in supply hitting the stock market at once - they would crash it all by themselves! Too Big To Keep It Real has always been the problem with the wirehouse advice model.

5. Make sacrifices by reducing stock exposure by beta and volatility. This is my iron-clad rule. The moment you recognize the crash, kick the small caps, biotechs, emerging markets etc. You must separate your feelings for a particular asset class, sector or individual stock and recognize that the higher the volatility, the worse they're gonna act in the short-term. I have a prenuptial agreement with every position I put on and we get divorced cleanly in a crash situation if need be.

5a. Also, margin balances must get cleaned up immediately, take the losses, I don't care. Because broker-dealers and clearing firms can and will raise equity requirements right at the moment of maximum pain and force you to sell out later - and lower. I could tell you war stories you would not believe, kids.

6. Make two lists. The first list everyone knows about and talks about - the "if they get cheap enough I'll buy it at that price" shopping list. Fine, but don't forget the "things I will sell on the next bounce list". Even the worst markets have short-term bounces in the midst of the chaos, use these bounces to get rid of the things that make you ill on the red days, even if you're taking a loss. The stocks you bought on a flyer one day or the companies that have been disappointing or where the story has changed - sell 'em on the rips.

7. Watch sentiment more closely than technicals or fundamentals. Pay attention to the squishier things in a crash moreso than you would normally. Are people screaming in pain? Or are they still looking for a bottom? Or have they given up entirely? There is no math to this, a lot of it is "feel".

8. Abandon any hope or intention of catching the bottom. You won't and it is unnecessary. No one will carry you out on their shoulders if you manage to do it but you will definitely get carried out on a stretcher if you get it really wrong with your own capital. Keep in mind that time becomes more important than price...not where will it end but when?

9. Suspend disbelief. "Bank of America could NEVER be a $5 stock!" "How could Bear Stearns possibly go out of business, its a hundred-year-old firm!" "No way this stock should trade at 5 times earnings, it's a Dow component!" "How could the market go down 5% four days in a row?" Guys, anything can happen in a crash, there are machines making the trades and they have no respect for the prestige or standing of a particular company. This is both gut-wrenching to behold and great for the level-headed who eventually got to buy Wells Fargo in the teens or Apple in the $100s once the bottom was in.

10. Stop being a know-it-all and shut up. If you are telling people a price or a support line where the selling will end, you are only kidding yourself. Have a guess based on your discipline and research, but don't act like you're talking facts. Fair Value is fine, but call it a guideline. Support is also fine, but call it a historical estimate of where buyers have come in before. The deal with crashes is that extremes are the norm, not the exception. Things tend to overshoot through reversion to the mean trendlines or fair value estimates on their way back to stasis.

Anyway, I've been through a lot of these, and I promise you I'll find myself standing tall on the other side of this one. Following these rules will give you a shot at doing the same.

50EMA weekly

2011-08-25T01:18:00.000-07:00

HR GLASS

SUPER GRP

STARHUB

BIOSENSORS

BREADTALK

F&N

Rattling

2011-05-18T19:39:00.000-07:00

Wow, January till now, I wonder who still reading my blog.

Market never change, collectively it is a rational mind deciding what is the best price reflecting the value of companies. Yet efficient market hypothesis is one of the worst strategy to employ, and people use technical analysis, fundamental analysis and even news flow to extract monies. Fools gains to say the least.

Technical analysis, a simple statistics game where either win rate or win-dollar have to be high enough to beat the game. But they forgot the human nature, the human personalities which is in its pure sense inconsistent in emotions and "rational mind". One inconsistence will just mess-up

Chapter 2 Expectancy

2011-01-09T19:51:00.000-08:00

As the previous chapter mentioned, expectancy is the 2nd most important component of a trading plan. And due to easier illustration, it will be placed ahead of psychology

Expectancy seems like a big word to a new investors or traders. However, it is not, put it in very simple term, to let the winners run and cut the losers short.

blogs been dead.. haha.. prove i can't write

For many technical traders, finding the right technical setups (cross moving averages, technical shape) seem to be the most important component in a decision to put in a trade. But what is least emphasize has been another technical term: expectancy ratio.

It seems like a big word, but basically in layman term: let your winners run and cut your losses short.

Taking a very simple example of 10 trades, with a high 7 wins, 3losses and average dollars per trade as below, a trader lose -$200

Trades	Win%	Lose%	Win$/trade	Loss$/trade	Overall
10	7	3	$100	$300	-$200

Reversing all the variables now, we can see from the table below, the trader with a small win-rate is still able to achieve $200 gain.

Trades	Win%	Lose%	Win$/trade	Loss$/trade	Overall
10	3	7	$300	$100	+$200

Multiple above statistics a few hundreds to thousands trades, you will be able to see how important loss$/trade affect the performance of a portfolio.

Chapter 1

2010-12-15T02:35:00.000-08:00

Some changes from original idea but big picture still stay:

There is no serious lack of trading books in the library, why should I bother myself with writing one more. For 1 reason, I am free. For 2nd reason, there are components within a trading plan that are not widely explored in the trading books arena. Besides Brett Steenbarger trading psychology books that are selling at 100+bucks, simple books on mindset and psychology are seriously lacked.

Mostly on the book shelves, you will be able to find "how to make money in the market", there is absolutely nothing wrong with it and most of them do work, but trading strategies are just one part of a big picture. Do you hear of "how do you consistently take money from market?" and" Why do most and i means 99% contra players lose money?" "How do you outperform the index?" Therefore this book seek to fill up the area that is lacking in other books and I hoped in a very simple way.

First of all, as I mentioned, component of a trading plan, what are them? And for simple explanation, I will treat investing as trading with more than six months horizon, so basically long term trading. I would classify the components of a trading plan into 4: strategy, psychology, expectancy and money management.

1. Strategy - there is no lack of books on this, stochastic, RSI, etc, etc

2. Psychology - it is to be the most important component, what is your mindset in the market? To make money for retirement? to pay off debts? for entertainment?

3. Expectancy - among the 4 components I believe to be 2nd most important because ensure consistence in profits.

4. Money management - Given 1mio in cash, how do you allocate to make sure diversification can outperform the market? If allocation below 1mio, how do you compensate for the lack by outperforming? Does leverage helps?

So I will show you in the following chapters how do you discover the components for yourselves. Because as individuals, we have different personalities that will fit in the market and trade optimally within. Optimal in this context means being able to have emotions stability (cool like), personality fit in the market (doesn't feel irritated) and profits.

And I hope I will be able to focus more on psychology and expectancy.

Stages of a trader

Just like in primary school, we learn about counting numbers, then addition, subtraction, multiplication, etc, then sec to differentiation, integration blah blah. Therefore to jump start your trading journey by getting ahead of your learning curve will not help you, rather more harmful. By learning how to multiple without understanding the concept of addition will result confusion later on. Similarly, by learning strategies and not testing them will in most cases, cause losses.

So in following I seek to identify which stages you should be in and what should you do in each stages to minimize the errors (not eliminate errors) you will encounter. Many people have make and loss money and they have gone ahead to give you lessons, so that you do not waste your time and money repeating the same. From some books I read, experts says the time taken to become professional is 10,000hrs of practice. Well in our modern days, there are ways to optimize to reduce it

1. noob (lack of terminology)

You do not know anything about stock market, but you want to make a lot of moneyas you heard story of traders making millions and you aspire to be one of them. In reality, ask yourself seriously, do you think by the abilities you have, are you able to beat the smartest people in the world in this "so-called" zero sum game.

"For more than two decades, Simons' Renaissance Technologies' hedge funds, which trade in markets around the world, have employed mathematical models to analyze and execute trades, many automated. Renaissance uses computer-based models to predict price changes in easily-traded financial instruments. These models are based on analyzing as much data as can be gathered, then looking for non-random movements to make predictions."

Yes of course, I am playing down your ego which help you save some money at the beginning. For a start, learn all the basics, timing of markets, what bids/asks, limit orders/market orders? what is a technical analysis, fundamental analysis, quantifiable analysis? what are the terms normally used? MA, PE, RSI, Stocastic, BB, PS, what are they? Learn the ABCs before you step out into battle ground. Learn the basic definitions, the strategies can wait later.

If you are still in the noobs state, certain parts of the books are still not for you yet. Read up or search the web, then the terminology will sound more right.

2. Amateur (searching and seeking)

You have read up financial statements and think that every (if not certain) companies can buy. Or you have read forums and people have been recommending certain stocks and had gone up. You look at the market and realise there is certain ways you can make money from it. You are either confident to make a plunge or still too careful in committing (different personalities which I will explore in future chapters)

You will seek trading gurus in whatever they claim to be, attending whatever seminars you can get your hands and search for a holy grail that you can make money from the market. You look at charts and use technical tools taught to you. Sometimes you make money, sometimes you don't. Overtime you forgot what you had been taught and seek the next best tools or systems. On the whole, either you lose money gradually or for some exponentially.

At this stage, which I feel a lot of people will be spending most time. And to be put it even worse, to be perpetual in this state as they get excited from one knowledge to another and want to test the market with it. But the best way to move on is to get to the discovery state.

3. Discoverer (Discovery state)

As the name suggests, this state is very important as you discover who you are in the market. If you did not give up from your losses from the amateur state, congratulation.

From now, you should discover that trading/investing is a game of probabilities. Taking full responsibilities of every trades you put in, accepting the rules of the game. Accept losses and commissions knowing is natural course of the business. You blame no one, even yourself, why? Because you should be finding out your personalities, and where and which time frame in the market and that is the reason why this book is written in this sequence to help you discover yourself and find the timeframe and the style of trading that suit you.

Book Writing

2010-11-28T20:36:00.000-08:00

I am getting very free recently, been thinking what to do with my free time. Well, the idea of writing a trading book came out. But of course with my wonderful grammar and incredible volcab, i will probably need a copy writer to put down my idea. I don't mind writing here, since I got 2 readers every week, haha...

Most trading book on the shelves of sg today are strategy, buy and sell calls. We have serious lack of psychology, sentiments, expectancy, money management. I always considered expectancy to be the most important in trading or investing.

Chapter 1

What is most important - expectancy

Trading plan - money management, expectancy, strategies

brief outline of above 3

Stages of a trader

- noob (lack of terminology)

- searching of holy grail (reading)

- transition state (give up or arrogant)

- finding your own style (zen like)

Chapter 2

Expectancy

2 ways to make money in mkt consistently

- either win more than lose

- every time u win is more than u lose

Chapter 3

Timeframe

- Intraday trader/swing trader/positions trader

- Mix up of timeframe vs personalities

Chapter 4

Find your personalities, then find your timeframe, now find your strategies fitting that timeframe

1. Shortterm stratgies - high probabilities trade

2. Swing strategies - half:half probabilities, win dollars must be more

3. Longterm - half:half probabilities, win dollars must be more

Chapter 5

Market first, sector 2nd, stocks 3rd for all 3 timeframe

Chapter 6 - Shortterm strategies

- lots size, limit order or market order

- trendday or consolidation

- extreme oversold/bought

Chapter 7 - Swing strategies

- lots size

- pullback/breakout

Chapter 8 - Positions trade

- money management

- Bull or bear market: economy swing

- sentiments swing

- Growth stock or Dividend yields

Chapter 9

Warning against mixing your timeframe with your strategies

Chapter 10

Beating the market, what should i name this book?

Failure swings - RSI

2010-11-09T22:43:00.000-08:00

Wilder also talked about failure swings. Failure swings can be used as strong indicators of an impending reversal. Failure swings are not affected by price action. Failure swings are only concerned with the RSI for the signals, and you ignore any divergences between the RSI level and the security's price level. These failure swings are found at the overbought and oversold levels.

As an example, let's assume that the RSI reaches 77. This is clearly overbought territory. Now, in the next move the RSI pulls back to 71. This pull-back does not cross below the 70 or overbought level.

The next move finds the RSI going back up to 79. If the next move down the RSI makes does not cross 70, this is what Wilder called a failure swing above 70. Wilder said that failure swings above 70 or below 30 are strong indications of a market reversal. RSI levels can also help identify trends.

Others have taken Wilder's work and expanded on it. Andrew Cardwell has developed new interpretations of the RSI in order to determine and confirm an existing trend. Cardwell noticed that an up trend can generally be seen in the 40 and 80 level. A down trend occurred between the 60 and 20 level.

Calendar Timing

2010-11-09T22:30:00.000-08:00

But there are all sorts of market timing techniques. Right now we’re at the beginning of one called the “mid-term election year cycle”. Over 80 years and 25 presidential elections, the stock market has followed a fairly definite course during the period surrounding the mid-term elections.

Since 1931, the 5-quarters surrounding that election (one quarter before through 4 quarters after) have always been up with an average return of 25.5% plus dividends. Had you invested $1,000 in the Dow Index only during these 4 quarters (31% of the time) it would have appreciated to $68,200 by the end of 2009. A $1,000 investment in the Dow only during all remaining trading days (69% of the time) since 1931 would have grown to just $1,800.

But there are other interesting calendar-based timing rules:

January Effect: The hypothesis that stock market performance in January predicts its performance for the rest of the year. If the stock market rises in January, it is likely to continue to rise by the end of December. This rule of thumb has an outstanding record for predicting the general course of the market each year, with only five major errors since 1950, for a 91.5% accuracy ratio. Since 1950 this trend has been repeated 32 of a possible 39 times.
Santa Claus Rally: a rise in stock prices in the month of December, generally over the final week of trading prior to New Year. The rally is generally attributed to anticipation of the January effect, an injection of additional funds into the market, and to additional trades which must, for accounting and tax reasons.
Superbowl Effect: The Super Bowl Indicator says that the stock market’s performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. If a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) wins, then it will be a bull market (up market). The indicator has been correct 33 out of 41 times, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average – a success rate of over 80%.
Daily: On a typical market day, volume will often look U-shaped being heaviest in the first 90 minutes of the day, again in the last 60-90 minutes and usually light in between these periods, with the lightest volume occurring during the noon hour period (Eastern).
Weekly: It’s been said that “amateurs” trade on Mondays and Fridays while pros trade mostly during the middle of the week.
Years:
- Years ending with the digit “0” have been the worst year in the decennial cycle for 127 years. For the last nine decades, the market ended up on only three occasions for the years ending in “0”.
- Another annual cycle that comes close to being constant is the four-year-cycle with the Dow Jones Industrial Average making lows in 1950, 1954, 1958 and in 1962….there are bottoms in 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982 and 1987….the market reached bottoms in 1990, 1994, 1998 and again in 2002….It appears that [the market] wants to make a bottom every four to four-and-a-half years no matter what we think should happen. Not actually declines but there was a consolidation pause in 2006 preceding an up leg…..will 2010 follow suit?
Options Expiration: Options expiration days can be and usually are extremely volatile with unpredictable results as to whether the market winds up or down.
The Ordeal of September and October: While September is known to be the worst month of the year, most Crashes take their biggest tolls in October, with most Black Fridays or Black Mondays occurring during those two months. Between 1939 and 2009, the S&P 500 suffered an average loss of .33% in September… the only month when the average change was negative. Had it not been for the major crashes, October would have been no different than any other month.
Summer Doldrums (aka “Sell in May ….”): Whether due to the fact that most Americans take vacations during the summer or because of the overlap with the September/October Ordeal, statistics bear out the fact that if investors were to take their money out of the market at the end of April and reinvest six months later at the beginning of November, performance would improve appreciably. Here are some of the facts:
- Since 1950, the DJ 30 has produced an average gain of 7.4 percent from November through April vs. 0.4 percent from May through October.
- Investing $10,000 in the DJ 30 during the “best” six-month period and switching to bonds during the “worst” six months every year since 1950 would have posted a $527,388 return. Doing the reverse would have cost the investor $474.
- The same approach with the S&P 500 index all the way back to 1945 shows November=April returns beating the remaining months 71 percent of the time.
- Adhering to the practice also would have reduced risk by avoiding the stock market crashes of 1929, 1987 and 2008.
Lunar: Finally, many adherents believe that the periods around new moons are bullish as compared with periods around full moons (see “Lunar Cycle Update“).

All these facts and statistics are interesting but I’ll rely on the market telling me when it’s time to buy or sell; I’ll stick with my market timing indicator.

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2010/10/27/calendar-based-market-timing/

High Probability Trades

2010-10-26T18:58:00.000-07:00

Fundamental (background info)

EPS, Sales, PE, dividend growth, earnings

Technical

Stretched/oversold/weekly

was actually thinking of writing down the strategies for high probabilities trading, but looking through the pasts record of strategies, mostly works, just need proper cutloss and mindset which is what most people will not seek in trading books.

Another question ponders me too if I am to setup a fund.

10mio funds size, with 20/2 model, best returns of course will be more than 20%, which means 3 mio a yr at least. What troubles me will be the allocation of funds, in order to achieve 30%, I cannot possible dump 10mio in a stock, but yet i cannot dump in a portfolio of stocks because if one is 50%gain, the other is -5%loss, with equal allocation will still be 25% less.

So allocation is a big question too if size get bigger not only trader psychology.

2010-10-15T06:53:00.001-07:00

abterra - placement 1.166

breakout

2010-09-20T00:18:00.000-07:00

UMS
broadway
armstrong

Strong & Weak

2010-09-06T20:45:00.000-07:00

Strong

-Sembcorp

-china minzhong

- cwt

- SIA eng

- St eng

- ara

-olam

-genting

-boustead

-broadway

-c2o

-first resources

-fj bejamin

-pec

-rafflesmg

weak

- wingtai

- allgreen

-nol

trades

2010-08-31T08:35:00.000-07:00

straits - 2.04

hlasia - 3.25 - need to bounce this week or next

midas -0.86 close

longcheer - 0.69

Consolidation of strategies

2010-08-24T01:41:00.001-07:00

Momentum run

Earnings

warrants competition

2010-08-09T08:42:00.001-07:00

Going to take part in the warrants competition, putting down some notes here to rem.

K2BW

K8QW

sembmar

rotary

CWT

olam

Z & 50ema5

2010-07-13T21:39:00.000-07:00

As strange it might sound, in correction, the banks had outperformed.

Just a comparsion with these 2 systems

1. Z entry is earlier but it meant more whipsaws, while 50ema5 lag big time in exit

- use z entry, use 50exit

2. Both systems fare quite bad in downtrend with sharp rallies

3. Knowing the overall trend of the stocks will help a lot in whether long or short is better, couple with trendline, maybe

BET

2010-07-12T08:17:00.000-07:00

I am yanlord bet, and i say downside which one down more, loser will sponsor too since i am already in disadvantage in % for upside.

News driven trades

2010-06-06T06:38:00.000-07:00

4 types of ideas. 1) Buy a breakout from a base on so-so news 2) Short after a good-news driven peak 3) Short a breakdown from a base on mixed news 4) Buy after a bad-news driven trough. To me, these are the times when the crowd under or over reacts to an event.

Rules

2010-05-30T08:28:00.000-07:00

1. Obey my cp, ep, tp, and not affected by how people should look at your end trades.
2. Buy the strongest, short the weakest.
3. Know your emotions, why fear? why euphoria
4. Do not be late for opening
5. Do not anticipate the trend and know your trend.
6. Listen to the market

7. Wait for the leaders to show up after correction, selldown. Be patient.

Change of rules

2010-05-26T03:48:00.000-07:00

was thinking and thinking.

1. Obey my cp, ep, tp, and not affected by how people should look at your end trades.
2. Obey ur pre-plan route
3. Do not be influenced by what surrounding says
4. Do not be late for opening
5. Do not anticipate the trend
6. Listen to the market

I am going to replace 3. with "Know your emotions, why fear? why euphoria?"

And number 5. Do not anticipate the trend and know your trend.

7. Wait for the leaders to show up after correction, selldown. Be patient.

Change of trend

2010-05-25T07:04:00.000-07:00

With the severity of this selldown, it may put the rebounce on a slower and lesser degree track, in anycase. If there is a potential change of trend, mindset need to change, not how low, but rather how high.

Strongest (above 200ema, above 50ema)
F&N
Biosensors
ARA
Smrt
Singpost
Anwell
Rafflesmg
Sarin
SBI offshore
armstrong
SIA enginner

Strong (above 200ema, below 50ema)
yangzjiang
cosco
kepland
sembcorp
broadway
china fishery
m1
longcheer
statschip

Buys

2010-04-14T22:43:00.000-07:00

Ramba Energy - acqusition of oil&gas not recognised, consistently revenue of 30mio from logistics, which translates to pe10.

Rotary- revenue of 500mio a year, 1.41billion order book, pe at 10 at 1.04y
yangzijiang - revenue of 10billionrmb, USD5.6billion order book till 2012, 9pe at 1.21

Allgreen - Nav 1.41

Wingtai - NAV 2.06

UE - NAV 2.46

Straitsasia - an increased production of 10miotonnes, will result in 1billion revenue, have to keep cost at 300-400

Starhub - dividend during apr 20&may23 of 10cents dividend

hocklianseng - net cash, 574mio order book, 200mio revenue/yr, 6PE

delete some posts because reviewing my lists of buys, anyway only 3 readers.

Misscellaneous

2010-03-24T03:26:00.000-07:00

Financial One’s market cap isS$460.8 mln at 57.5 cents, , representing price-to-book of 0.79x,based on Jun ’09 NAV of 51.84 US cents or 72.4Singapore cents

Statschip - 1.1x book

Guocoleisure - NAV 74.8centsUS, S$1.04

China essence - at 0.40, 5xPE, 0.7x book

Soundglobal - dual listing candidate, waste water treatement

Shorts

Hi-P, at 71 cents, market cap is $629.89mln, forward PEis a demanding 12x versus its average of 7-8x.

Research:

Boustead

breadtalk

DMX Tech

Goodpack

GP Bat

GP industries

HL asia - noted

HL finance

Hoe Leong

HTL Intn

Kingmens

NSL

soilbuild

tiongwoon - green

wee hur

Shipping

2010-03-17T06:08:00.000-07:00

Sembmar - revenue of 5billion a year, 5.5billion order book till early 2012, pe 11.8 at 4.00, revenue come from asia, europe, rig building

kepcorp - revenue of 12billion a year(8billion from marine, 2bill infra, 2 bill props), 5.6billion order book, pe 12+ at 9.00

aslmarine - revenue of 170mio a yr, 382orderbook, just enough to keep it going

Rules

2010-02-18T23:31:00.000-08:00

Was doing some reviews and here goes the infamous rules

1. Obey my cp, ep, tp, and not affected by how people should look at your end trades.
2. Obey ur pre-plan route
3. Do not be influenced by what surrounding says
4. Do not be late for opening
5. Do not anticipate the trend
6. Listen to the market

Number 5 still is the killer, have to watch it. surprisngly nothing to add to the lis

What is correction?

2010-02-09T08:12:00.000-08:00

Strength:

ARA management

Biosensors

Broadway

Ezra - z

Goodpack

Jaya

kepcorp

Satsvcs

Statschip

swiber- z

pec - z

Shorts - SMB Capital

2010-02-04T18:47:00.000-08:00

1. Short stocks if they pop to previous support levels
2. If the market trends up for two days then pray for a third day gap up so you can short the market!!
3. Trade with less size as downtrending markets tend to be more volatile
4. Be mentally prepared for the market to meltdown at any time. See traderfeed.blogspot.com on an excellent post on what to look for. http://bit.ly/945ZkT
5. If the market gaps down and there is a feeble attempt at a bounce on the Open then put your short caps on.
6. Remember that stocks go down more quickly than they go up. Take a deep breath when your shorts start working and give them some room to trade lower
If a stock makes a hard down move on volume wait for it to pop a little before initiating a short position
7. Don’t fade down moves. Fade up moves!!
Remember that in a weak market we don’t need to have a down day every single day. If we have two hard down days in a row be careful with your shorts on the third day. This isn’t September 2008. The market isn’t gonna drop 20% in a week

Investing

2010-02-02T01:07:00.000-08:00

What is a good tool for investing?

close below 10month moving average - sell
close above 10month moving average - buy

OR
13 week cross over 34week - buy
34week cross over 13week - sell

An eyeball test will show weekly wise show a faster signal but of course weekly. But what is more interesting is both occurs at the sametime, woo hoo, strike gold?

Technical Analysis

2010-01-24T06:59:00.000-08:00

I have been looking at what happened to individuals stocks in the midst of a correction or selldown, and what interests me was only those with para raise was more affected. What this probably means might be the emphasis on index might be overrated

doing some individual study on certain stocks, first up,

Straitsasia

in its old bulltrend, its normal descend WITHOUT any rebound lasts from 3-4days with a % of 25-33% with an extended ATR. Currently in its bull run, descend: 4-5days, % - 9.5-12.5%

Olam

Lazy to do historical, but its what is correction in Feb 2007 was what surprised me with many other stocks similarly. Its trendline works better in the past

Currently, damn messy chart, nothing significant time spent below RSI 30 is less than 5 days

Capitaland

Old bullrun

DWAR 11% - 20% from 50EMA

Bear

DWAR 18% - 43% from 50EMA

Market Reviews

2010-01-20T08:42:00.000-08:00

z cutloss

Noble - 2.997

Wilmar - 6.45

Parkway -2.65

Ho Bee -1.71

Kepland -3.35

Yangzijiang - 1.13

Rotary

Long:

Chinaaoil???

Cosco

Today did a wonderful trade: journal to take note:

Ezra breakdown with bearish engulfing last friday but did not enter as it was pass the tail of previous candle. From Ezra 's behavior, usually there will be a retest to mid of the previous high, took the trade early in the morning with gapup and high as cutloss, and down it went.

Learning: observe past behaviour, such as ho bee (inhibit parabolic before)

Target to note

2010-01-17T08:58:00.000-08:00

ARA - 0.91

Asiatravel

ASL marine

CH offshore

Cosmosteel

falconenergy

Market Reviews

2010-01-14T18:33:00.000-08:00

Shorts

2010-01-11T10:20:00.000-08:00

Due to my bearish bias as a person, shorting can be hazardous to health, :)

After observation, it is best to short

1) after exuberance of 3-4days with signal taken below the previous day close and cutloss at high

2) reversal usually happen mon or tues, pull out any chart and just see the high or near the high to get my meaning, reason is simple or else how you get a black weekly bar

3) Worst day to initate short is on friday with reason above

4) Use a trendline to see as illustrated previous post

Let's see whether it works out as plan, straits will be experiement for shorts

Stocks

2010-01-08T00:37:00.000-08:00

Breakout:
Ausgroup
CH offshore
hoe leong ( need a cup)

Asiafood
Breadtalk
Goodpack
pfood
tat hong

just goin through it on mind only, pls dun take signals

Trendlines

2010-01-05T19:15:00.000-08:00

Woo Hoo

Utimate Whipsaws

Book Review - Stock Market Wizards (revised ver)

2009-12-29T08:24:00.000-08:00

One of the most striking ideas you get from the book are the different kinds of traders that are successful in their own methods namely, quant, arbitrager, high probabilities trader, information traders minus the fundamentalists.

Ideas:

High probabilities trade - if a trade work 85% of the time, and risk/reward 1vs1, u still win

Arbitrager - if different countries different treatment to dividend tax, arbitrage

Team - psychiatrist, analyst, trader (very interesting setup)

Lessons:

The importance of catalysts for movements in stocks

Setting goals even in amounts made

Trade Setup

2009-12-03T23:20:00.000-08:00

Consolidating some of the trade setup here.

bull flags,

You want to find a confluence of support at a key moving average (usually the 20 period EMA) and also a Fibonacci retracement, usually the 50% retracement. This will increase your odds of a successful trade, and also allow you to take a potentially larger position as a result of a tighter stop.

RSI system - Bill Cara (mostly for extreme case)
FAs most of you know, my simple RSI system shows Accumulation and Distribution Zones when the RSI-7 is below the 30 line for the Monthly, Weekly and Daily data series and above 70 for the same. But a Buy Alert for a short-term oriented trader is when the Daily RSI-7 pops back up over 30, if confirmed by similar RSI turnabouts in similar stocks. For an intermediate-term oriented trader, there should be a crossing of the 30 line in both Daily and Weekly RSI-7 data, and for a long-term oriented trader, the crossing of the 30 line should happen in the Daily, Weekly and Monthly.

Exuberance trade ( shall name it this way)

1. For counters going panic buy or sell with a set of criteria belows:

- traded out of bollingerband 20 to increase the odds of exuberance

- chart show breakout/down without consolidation especially if early morning trade

- traded above a round figure resistance (for e.g. 2.60) or depth showing mini sellers/buyers for breakout/down respectively.

2. Short/Buy on countertrend with a stop only 2 bids

3. Buyback at depth showing nobody buying or selling

This is a high probabilities trade, risk to reward is thin, 1 to 1. If i have time, i attached a chart to show how it works

Market Review

2009-12-02T20:03:00.000-08:00

Just back from break, seem like a good one, or else will be whipped more by the mkt.

I am not entirely bullish but the sideways consolidation can be a likely scenario for the next thrust. Market can consolidate through correction or time and it is doing the latter in many sectors.

In the events we are going to break, here are a few for breakout play. But as always watch your risk, especiallly a failed breakout, :)

Straitsasia
Goldenagri
Pac Andes
Olam
Wilmar
Ho Bee
Wingtai
Allgreen
UIC

I am thoroughly disappointed during these few months, although i am still up 77% average for the year on all my accounts. And to continue research in a systematic way, i should put up what I am going to do in scrutiny of my very few readers..

1. To read 1 book a month if i can get my hands on
Frost, A.J. and Prechter, Robert R., Elliott Wave Principle, Tenth Edition
Edwards, Robert D. and Magee, John, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, 9th Edition
Kaufman, Perry J., New Trading Systems and Methods, 4th Edition
Kirkpatrick, Charles D. and Dahlquist, Julie R.: Technical Analysis The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians, Pearson Education
Nison, Steve, Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, 2nd Edition
Pring, Martin J., Investment Psychology Explained
Pring, Martin J.: Technical Analysis Explained, 4th Edition
Aronson, David R.: Evidence-Based Technical Analysis

2. For those aspired TAs who want to win buy and hold, win this game first http://www.chartgame.com/ Don't say not enough indicators or can only buy/sell on closing/opening. Beat it.

3. To do quant testing on market
- I am not that keen on above as there are numerous resources out there that can do a better job than me, the only disadvantage is that lack of such data in sg.

Shorts

2009-11-08T08:25:00.000-08:00

With Dow cycle projected around 10,374, we might have around 7-8days of uptrend to work with:

Longs

Guocoland

SMRT

Noble - 2nd day consolidation, 3rd day decide

Shorts

UOB 18.22

Ezra 2.00

rotary 1.10

wingtai 1.73

Continue Observations

2009-11-04T21:37:00.000-08:00

Mar- Jul Breath & Vol goes in hand. Overbought get overbought. Oversold with fierce rallies Chart formation work best: bullflap, ascending, flat consolidation breakout

Aug - Sep Vol goes to pennies, high for many stocks achieved. Short of failed breakout have to wait 1day Momentum trade for the pennies (which i got to learn, especially those breakout for 2-3days pennies)

Oct - Nov Where shall it be? Oversold get oversold? Overbought with fierce selldown?

Uptrend line breakdown seem to be slower than flat consolidation breakdown (when it flip it upside down, u get it)Weak get weak, strength beget strength

Breakout list

2009-10-23T03:00:00.000-07:00

Financial One - 0.50

Macarthurcook industrial -0.42

Sinwa - 0.52

Super coffeemix - 0.675

biosensors??

Engro - 0.91 hmm...

longtime never see this list rite.ya.. small size

Largest % rally in STI without correction

2009-10-20T23:37:00.000-07:00

Classifiy them as huge range

Apr 1990 - 1109 - 41%, 13mths
May 1991 - 1565

Oct 1992 - 1333 - 77%, 4 mths
Feb 1993 - 2366

Nov 2001 - 1332, 35%, 4mths
Mar 2002 - 1801

1998 rebound rally
===============
Aug 1998 - 862 - 79%, 5mths
Jan 1999 - 1547

Correction of (1504-1362) - 10%, 1mth

Feb 1998 - 1362 - 60%, 5mths
Jul 1999 - 2175
=================

Bull market 2003
=================
May 2003 - 1300 - 44%, 12mths
Feb 2004 - 1884

Correction of (1895-1700) - 11%, 1-2mths

May 2005 - 1700 - 56%, 12mths
May 2006 - 2659

Correction of (2659-2367) - 13%, 1-2mths

Jun 2006 - 2367 - 55%, 12mths
Jul 2007 - 3635
*slight correction at on Feb07

Correction of (3633-3322) - 9%, 1 mth

Jul 2008 - 3635 - 7%, 3mths
Oct 2008 - 3900

Notice something very interesting, % of gain, mths, correction move in unison until the last rally breaks the trend
=================

Mar 2009 - 1440, 87%, 7mths
Oct 2009 - 2700

Number besides is % gain, number of mths achieved, eyeball test, by definition of correction means 10% from the high.

Market Reviews

2009-10-14T08:58:00.000-07:00

Didn't know I didnt blog for 2 weeks, was gathering research since market was flat, now that range extension has taken place, topping process continue.. now i sound like a broken record... haha...

Previous resistance was at 2750, but there is a higher chance we will hug the previous broken uptrendline for a blow-off. The soonest we touch that line, we had it.

Long

Guocoland (bear flap, buying on RSI, gap 2.16)

Indo (valid for blow off above 1.80)

Noble (gunning for all-time intraday high of 2.70)

Wilmar (nice consolidation, gap at 6.75)

Ezra (vol??)

hi-p (breakout)

Suntec (breakout)

Yzj (look like shorting covering today, and of course, becos if shorted it, see how consolidation)

Short list:

Capland (only valid tmr for a gapup of more than 5cents)

Olam (going for a blow off hugging uptrendline, ard 2.80)

Rotary (Short above 1.20, cover old high)

Parkway

set your own stop

Market Reviews

2009-10-01T08:13:00.000-07:00

Market has been range-bound for the couple of mths, make me probe about the possible change of strategy, previously strategy works well if I do really religiously follow it

My own P&L equity curve serves me as the best indicators, when breakout failed, mostly we are profit taking or range-bound. When short setup failed, most likely still in period of consolidation. But just a summary to what going on now:

Mar- Jul

Breath & Vol goes in hand

Chart formation work best: bullflap, ascending, flat consolidation breakout

Aug - Sep

Vol goes to pennies, high for many stocks achieved.

Short of failed breakout have to wait 1day

Momentum trade for the pennies (which i got to learn, especially those breakout for 2-3days pennies)

Oct -

Where shall it be?

Uptrend line breakdown seem to be slower than flat consolidation breakdown (when it flip it upside down, u get it)

I am working on a set of indicators to determine the market strength on which phase we are in.

1. Z call

2. STI weekly chart - above 10EMA

3. STI component charts - number of stocks above 20EMA

4. Breath of stocks- which i am still thinking how many days should i put

Alright pls comment though i guess most of you will be more interested in what is below:

Shorts:

Capitaland: 3.72 (should at least threaten the previous low at 3.50)

Swiber: 0.92

Kepland: 2.82 (shorted too early, this should be the price)

Olam: 2.50

Ho bee: 1.50

Ezra:1.95

Sembmar: 3.20

Ausgroup: 0.74

First target of STI- 2,580, 2500

by now should know the number besides is the cutloss pt, entry is only useful for determine your risks

Market Reviews

2009-09-17T19:31:00.000-07:00

Prop are joining the banks nearing uptrendline. But the most troubling thing for any correction will be US continuing strength in breath and adv-decline.

went on too short when shuld just apply the strategies mapped a while ago.

stops
DBS - 13.20 (trendline), 13.00 (breakout pt)
Yangzijiang - 1.06
Chinaaoil - 1.23

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-mother-of-all-momentum-thrust-years-2998.html

http://www.kirkreport.com/09/sp_oscillator_9_17_09.gif
http://www.kirkreport.com/09/battleforsept.gif

Market Reviews

2009-09-07T08:28:00.000-07:00

As much as I am downside bias, I will give doubt to a "triple top" in the STI. Time is running out for the bears, it has to show this week or breakout to 2,750 will be the likely case.

Shorts -Sectors that are shortable if breakdown

Commodities (surprised, surprised, where the inflation talk)?

Banks

China

Long

Properties

hyflux

hyfluxwater

sarin - only valid tmr

sinotel

last note: in the event we break pass 2700, i will fade the strength

Market Reviews

2009-08-31T09:34:00.000-07:00

I will still maintain the same strategies as mentioned in previous posts unless change of trend is quite clear

prop still look pretty ok with no serious damage, a few lower lows, rest of sectors look neutral

Shorts:

All 3 banks testing uptrend line

chinaaoil - i love to short this guy, but range it first

Commodities look weak - indo, i choose straits but the cutloss is too far

Sembmar still look gd as a short with 3.2 as cutloss

Longs

epure - waiting for tick up

hyflux - see how it how 2.80

singtel at 3.06 on valid tmr

genting - see how this guy hold 0.995

ho bee - see how 1.30

Market Reviews

2009-08-26T08:26:00.000-07:00

Sorry a bit busy but recently make me look at the rules again.

1. Obey my cp, ep, tp, and not affected by how people should look at your end trades.
2. Obey ur pre-plan route
3. Do not be influenced by what surrounding says

4. Do not be late for opening

5. Do not anticipate the trend

6. Listen to the market

Blues are not moving, volume went to the pennies, not a healthy sign of the market. But not a good time to swing short but to fade extreme move at low volume.

Strategies current

1. As mentioned, fade extreme moves at low volume, failed breakout, failed breakdown on intraday

2. Scale down position size, widening the stops, minimise whipsaws.

3. Leverage 1:1 on any blues, play 20% on pennies run

bullish

K-reit

mapletreelog

parkwaylifereit

sgx

pac andes

all the china s chips

e-pure

Hi-P

oceanus

bearish

indo

sembmar

yes, not much shoortr

Market Reviews

2009-08-11T09:19:00.000-07:00

Got my wisdom tooth out and sick last week, missing in actions.

Was scanning through the list and I was surprised to find more bullish setups.

Here they are
China is exhibting formation, with volume in, couples may fly:
China energy, china milk, china xlx, china fish

Commodities (still my fav sector)
Wilmar
Straits
Rotary

Jardine C, gentings, midas, rafflesedu,MCL land, parkway on list

Prop
Kepland
Wingtai
Spland

Starhub (Fav now)

Personally tho, guts feel is a topping actions, be careful out there

Market Reviews

2009-08-02T08:46:00.000-07:00

Possible Longs

Mapletree log

Yanlord

Hi P

Stats chip

f&n

ST eng

ascendareits

some sectors move look exhausting - prop, comm

will be scaling down on longs

Breakout list

2009-07-26T02:06:00.000-07:00

Here you goes again:

- NOL: 1.70

- F&N: 3.98

- RafflesMG: 3.96
- Swiber: 0.92

- KS energy: 1.20

- Kep T&T - 1.47

- ARA

- UIC

- Olam

- Straits

- Sembcorp

Seem commodities turn now

i need a machine to stockscreen breakout, this is tiring.

Here u goes

2009-07-23T09:23:00.000-07:00

Doing a post mid of the week when I have sometime to refresh myself physically

10days of gains, chase the price? :)

high lists

- Wilmar

- Ascottreits

- cambridge

- CDL Htrust

- falconenergy

- hl finance

Breakout list

- First Resources

- NOL

- ascendasreit

-CWT

-hongguo

- lian beng

- manhanttan resources

Penny

- C&G

- yongnam

argh... so many dun do liao...

Musings

2009-07-18T02:01:00.000-07:00

Ah.. been a terrible week for shortists and here i am, with a personal reviews

1. Obey my cp, ep, tp, and not affected by how people should look at your end trades.
2. Obey ur pre-plan route
3. Do not be influenced by what surrounding says

4. Do not be late for opening

5. Do not anticipate the trend

6. Listen to the market

Out of those above, main mistake was definitely 6, market was telling me on Mon, Tues with surprisingly good internals (strong advancers vs few) but i refuse to listen.

No doubt this can be a complex topping action

Here goes the market

Whether this rally have legs will much depends on next week,

Any first downside - 2,390, next few level will be 2,350 and finally 2,318 (the wonderful candle that negate 2 gaps at 1 time)

Upside potential will be 2,620 but the real test come in at 2,720 and that's will be a true test of faith

Sector

China:

China energy - waiting for breakout

Chinaaoil - waiting for 1.16

Cosco - above 1.2+

Yangzijiang - above 0.80

Midas - above 0.82

Commodities & Marine

Firstresour - 0.70

KS energy - a retest of 1.08 will have me long

Noble,straits - slight chance

kepcorp - look nice

Prop

HPL: 1.66+

Mis

Parkway - 1.70+

UOL - gd support at 3.20

Let the rain fall

2009-07-12T04:26:00.000-07:00

We are setting up for some nice shorts if not because of the strength of the index by the banks & singtel.

S&P is oversold and due for a bounce. A positive open will have me let the rain falls on all sectors.

Market Reviews

2009-07-01T03:21:00.000-07:00

Cover some shorts for miniature gains

Many counters setting up in apex triangle or sideways pattern. It will be interesting how it will unfold.

Pennies got strength, blues are ranging. Will we have strength.

Will be on reservist till next wed, guess I will be sidelines, observing, let them break.

Shorts

2009-06-28T22:32:00.000-07:00

Stops:
Chinaaoil - 1.19
F&N - 3.94
Ho bee - 0.87
Indo - 1.32
Yangzijiang - 0.815
Wingtai - 1.48

commodities still strong, i m surprised

Target for Correction

2009-06-22T09:32:00.000-07:00

From Gann

Dates and level of retracement from historical projections

Beginning Jul - 740

Beginning Jul - 778

Mid Jul - 800

Mid Jul - 833

End August - 700

Mid Sep - 700

Market Reviews & Rattling

2009-06-18T08:30:00.000-07:00

With a 4 days down, STI is bullish on a short-term, but I am not betting on long side unless for some scalp trades.

We need to see whether we feel 2,315 gap by tmr or mon or else selling will continue

Banks/properties on rebound due to beaten down.

Thinking how to rally clients to trade as a whole, tho they still have their own feel about stocks. feel.... hmmm

Shorts

2009-06-08T08:12:00.000-07:00

First line of defence: STI rising 20EMA - 2270

2nd line which I think this is where the correction will end, 50EMA

Shorts covering:

ChinaAoil - i am surprised at how limited downside, should have shorted the hell out of it

1.06 to threaten the lower low, :)

Rotary - will be interesting to see how it reacts with 0.58 (breakout pt), i prefer coveirng at 0.51

Allgreen - 0.81 (that will take sometime)

Ho Bee - Didnt know i short so gd price, 0.75 rising 20MA

Wingtai - Shouldnt have too much downside, see how it reacts with 1.20

UOL - bring my amno to bring down this guy, no 3.00 no cover

Genting - 0.64

UOB - 14.0 i doubt it can stand

OCBC - 7.00 i doubt it can stand too

Banks holding well in US now, last to selloff ?

Potential shorts

Charts, charts, charts

2009-06-07T08:07:00.000-07:00

Alright, finally nua enough to put in some reviews:

Yes, i am bearish, but some charts look bullish,... hmm

Bullish

Midas - too textbook perfect ascending triangle, I will not take it unless fail breakout

China milk

Bearish

Yangzijiang - stop at high,

Rotary - look like island reversal

Properties

Commodities and marine are the tricky ones, have to wait for confirmations

Market Review

2009-06-04T07:31:00.000-07:00

Just to put a note to some my dear readers.

Indicators/some guts feeling are market will be going through weeks of selldown/sideways to workoff its negative divergence

Though there maybe some individual rallies but the majority part of it is too risky to put to it.

Rattling

2009-05-31T08:46:00.000-07:00

Yes, been a little bit busy with admin and admin and admin, but yes i am still around.

Anyway got a chat with rallyartist and exchange some ideas to blog it down;

1. Price consensus

basically price move in a trend in high volatility period until it develops into low volatility whereby a new trend (reversal or continuation may develop)

2. Time delay,

it naturally strikes me as being opposite the supposingly desired direction of the trade but rallyartist mention it may not be so.

3. z 2nd entry still can enter which is quite unique to me

4. Magnet trade( from bo yoder)

A strong moving average like 200MA will normally have the power to suck it up

5. Failed Technical setup

This strikes me more recently especially in event like what if formation fail, do we trade opposite technically

6. Reversal

Mon or Tues?

Market Reviews

2009-05-12T03:17:00.000-07:00

Been a bit busy, sorry couldn't update, looking at the index stocks, seem like we have some consolidation for a little while.

Let them consolidate and let the midcap raise.

Stops
YZJ - 0.66
Midas - 0.59
Rafflesedu - 0.450
Capitalrchina - 0.955
KS energy - 1.20
Suntecreit - 0.86
Ascendasreit - 1.47
Kep T&T - 1.40

Shorts
OCBC - 7.10
Allgreen - 0.78

i am surprised no real sectoral weakness, guess is stock picking time

Stops and

2009-04-29T21:58:00.000-07:00

Capitaland - 2.60
Statschip - 0.40
Suntecreits - 0.71
yzj - 0.47
wingtai -0.83
Capitarchina - 0.775

doesnt look very strong to me

Reversal vs Retracement

2009-04-28T19:43:00.000-07:00

Got an interesting video from bandit

rounded top - reversal

straight or down - retracement

Stops

2009-04-27T02:26:00.000-07:00

Yangzijiang -0.43, stop 0.43
F&N - stop 2.38
Statschip - stop 0.35
Gentings - 0.57 target - stop 0.62,
Capitaland - 2.40, stop 2.35
CapitalRchina - 0.69 stops
Ascendasreit -
note Tat hong, ASL marine

STI - 1783- 1830
1760 - fibonacci, 38%
R- 1830, 1850

Counters & Stops

2009-04-21T21:11:00.000-07:00

ASL marine - .48
Swiber - 0.45
Macquninfra - 0.30
Raffleedu - 0.38
SC global - 0.50
UOL - 2.00

Fight it out

2009-04-20T00:34:00.000-07:00

Market hovering around major resistance, let them fight it out. Quite possible to fade any breakout or down in such case.

I am going to take some time off trading to train on some trading psychology matter

1. Review on entry, exit, trailing, position sizing.

Stops

2009-04-14T02:28:00.000-07:00

Yangzijiang - 0.49
Cosco - 1.00
Straitsasia - 0.96
Rafflesedu - 0.415
Midas - 0.52
Sembmar - 2.30
Suntereits - 0.61

Note:
Genting - 0.60
OCBC - 5.88
Reits - maple, Kreits

Seem like challenging the high we have this year, 1,922 - 1,958. on the downside we have 1,830-1,852

Prep

2009-04-13T09:06:00.000-07:00

cosco - 0.975
sembmar - stops at high
gentings- 0.60

Prep

2009-04-12T08:20:00.000-07:00

what can I say if mkt prove me wrong, follow the trend, luckily got only 1 short recognising primary trend

First R - 1867, 1912
2nd R - 1938
First S - 1800
2nd S- 1700

Yzj - 0.435 stop, 0.515, 0.535
OCBC - cover back

Note
Midas - 0.50 stops
Straitsasia - 0.88, 1.00
rafflesedu - 0.39. 0.45
banyan - 0.35
SP land - 3.10
ASL Marine - 0.46

Stops & a story

2009-04-07T18:23:00.000-07:00

Update
Gentings - 0.555
Noble - 1.17
Kepcorp - 5.00, tho 4.87 will be a better stop, gap 5.30-5.45
Citidev - 5.35 stop, gap 5.72-80

The banker who said no
http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/03/banking-andy-beal-business-wall-street-beal.html

There is always exception in this world, ponder ponder

Prep

2009-04-03T23:44:00.000-07:00

Update: read through and did a bit of analysis, seem that might be facing off some resistance soon.
Target move for STI:

We might move beyond the breakaway gap on 08Jan but the market will prove itself

In the event that market consolidate at 1800+ level, the senario as painted on the chart will be, I will believe 1,608 as the start of the push will not be likely to be broken in the next retest and that's how we know whether this bull is real.

Kepcorp - support 5.20, midpt 5.50, stop at 5.94

OCBC - Resistance 5.40, 5.20, stop at 5.00

Capitamall - Resistance 1.45, 1.42, stop at 1.25

StraitsAsia - Resistance 0.90, 0.865, stop at 0.80

Cosco - stop at 0.82, resistance at 1.00

Sembmar - support 1.76, 1.86, stop at 2.07

More stops

2009-04-02T01:50:00.000-07:00

Cosco - 0.885
Sembmar-1.85
NOL - 1.20

Setup

2009-04-01T09:20:00.000-07:00

Updating the trailing stops

Capitaland - 2.50
Citidev - 5.40
Indo - 0.62
Kepland - 1.50
Noble - 1.25
OCBC - 5.00 (waiting for it, or else 4.90)
Parkway - 1.20
F&N - 2.50 (waiting for it
Yanlord - 1.20
Yangzijiang - 0.40

John D. Rockefeller

2009-03-31T20:49:00.000-07:00

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller
Got reference from a christian bro about this guy, quite fasinating in terms of real wealth, but it seems as the bible says too, the old are not remembered.

Watchlist

2009-03-31T07:11:00.000-07:00

Capitalcommercial - 0.80 cp, a bit wide cut
Parkway - 1.08cp
NOL, banks, F&N watch it

today miss a few ride on hongkongland, parkway, no more

STI
resistance - 1,740, small gap there, 1,776.
support 1,664

Market Reviews

2009-03-26T02:34:00.000-07:00

Touchdown resistance.

Pretty hard to determine the next line of resistance unless naturally is 1,800, support at 1700.
In any case, here are the shorts
F&N - 2.51 day low, 2.74 resistance
OCBC - 4.92 day low, 5.13 resistance
Sembmar - 1.76 day low, 1.92 resistance
Note is a countertrend move

Prep for Session Tmr

2009-03-24T02:34:00.000-07:00

STI 1,754 resistance, STI 1,723 ystr high, 1,680 ystr low, 1,664 support

In the event that DJI rally

STI open flat, up to test 1,723 and fail
STI open 1,723 and sell to 1,706 then 1,680 and fail to test gap
STI open up 1,723 and rally up 1,754

2nd scenario more likely or similar event
SGX - 5.14, believe it stuck between 5.00 - 5.20, (trailing 5.00)
Capland - 2.60 measured move

Market Reviews

2009-03-23T20:26:00.000-07:00

New bull? see how it retrace

I can view my twitter updates on the blog at your work place, a little strange i can't view it at home though

Market Reviews

2009-03-19T02:11:00.000-07:00

Up against resistance at 800, retracement to 750. Come on, sellers.

Puny STI with a downtrendline, range is tight, risk/reward not so favourable

Twitter Updates

2009-03-17T19:34:00.001-07:00

Finally get twitter up, wanting to do away with trades taken page because too troublesome.

Market Reviews

2009-03-17T02:19:00.000-07:00

US seem to easy, shooting star with overbought conditions,
If it really sell:

S&P - 734 then 721 second level, lower will be retest the low
STI - 1,556 then 1,524 and below will retest the low

If it rally, which really stand a chance
S&P - 800
STI - 1,630

Rattling

2009-03-15T22:30:00.000-07:00

Just back from IT show, crowd mood is more discouraging than last yr, contracian indicator? Damned shagged, sorry for the lack of updates and quite distorted Trades Taken page (due to the lack of updates), thinking.... how to make it more up to date though.

Anyway, I will be in twitter more often now, justfollow me as id: dongtrader overthere.

Just a peep to the market, seem like we can't fill the gap at 1,580 even for today, should i turn bearish

Market Reviews

2009-03-10T03:01:00.000-07:00

Bounce not been broad-based and volume is average, in terms of price action rather is pretty much neutral. Rights rumours continue to flood the market.

Few scenarios for tomorrow:
1. US bounce, SG gapup to 1,540+ and consolidation day
2. US bounce, SG gapup to 1530+ touch 1,513 and sell
3. US bounce, SG gapup to 1,540+ and fill the gap to 1,588 trendday
4. Nothing happens

Realise the trade-taken maybe given me a check, for the winlose% of it. Psychology wise stil to be self-control to reiterate the importance of expectancy of trading and not rather the winlose% of it

If you lose consecutive 10trades, with $100per trade, is $1,000
If you win consecutive 5trades with $200 per trade, is $1,000 too,

Let your winner run, cut your losers short.

Market Review

2009-03-09T09:33:00.000-07:00

Market continue to sell, but it seems to me less than a crash, nevertheless, i guessed a snapback will not be too far from here. Update:

F&N ep 1.93, cp 1.86, tp -20ema
UOB measured move should be ep 7.8, cp, 0.20down, tp -20ema
SIA eng - get longterm chart on hand
SPH - touch support,

Market Review

2009-03-08T05:39:00.000-07:00

Market remains treacherous on both US and SG, what has normally been historical edges in determining intermediate bottom has remained unwarranted in this environment. What is notable is still the weakness in properties but strength in commodities and oil related.

Of course, mkt revert to the mean if it is too stretched. But the difficulties part is to set very tight stops

F&N - enter on 2.00, cp -1.96, tp - 20ema
Sembcorp - enter on 2.04, cp - 2.00, tp - 2.14(downtrend line)
SGX - enter on 4.20, cp- 4.16, tp-20ema, 4.36+ (downtrendline)
Citidev - enter on 4.23+, cp 4.20, tp, 4.6(downtrendline) - seem like touching longterm support
UOB - enter on 9.00 (breakout steepdowntrend) , cp - 8.82, tp - gap or 20ema

Bollinger Band Test2

2009-03-02T21:41:00.000-08:00

Going to test the bollingerband trading on mean reversion.

A few observations, counters tend to touch bollinger band on first rebound and may sell further. Thus, F&N buy on 2.38 and sell on 2.48 was actually a correct move

Trades Taken

2009-02-20T00:47:00.000-08:00

Just a mention to F&N since I am testing on a strategy on bollinger band

Enter on outside of bollinger band by
-Either Opening/Closing/Intraday,
- Enter on stock > 6.5% drop exceeding BB (1)
- Enter on >4% beyond touch of BB line (2)

Enter on below calculation
Closing prev 2.5

Line on bollinger 2.5
Percentage (1) :0.04800

Percentage (2) :0.04800
Favourable price:2.38

Yes, but right the favourable price should be 2.38.

Position Sizing

2009-02-18T00:08:00.000-08:00

The reason why the P&L for trades taken is in absolute amounts, rather than % is due to the minimum bid structure in SGX

For <$1, 0.005 per bid
For >$1, 0.01 per bid
For >$10, 0.02 per bid

Which means if % is used for calculating between $3 stock and a $1, P&L will be skewed towards $1stock if I gain/lose 0.10each for both counters.

Given P&L in absolute amounts, whether your entry size is 10lots or 2 lots, the results will be easily compared. But there is slight note to be taken especially comparing results <$1 and >$1

Trendday vs Consolidation

2009-02-17T23:43:00.000-08:00

How do we recognise a trend day from consolidation.

1. Whether gap is filled during 1hr30min?
If yes - trendday
If no - consolidation

2. When all counters at a certain direction during opening? (Usually after 2-3consolidation)
If yes - trendday
If no-consolidation

Never sell your counter in an uptrendday, vice versa

Nice articles

2009-02-15T07:51:00.000-08:00

What marks out the few managers who made money last year is that, like Soros and his ilk before them, they took big macro bets on the state of the world. Indeed, Hedge Fund Research found that ‘macro’ managers — who take massive positions on the movement of currencies, commodities and interest rates — made an average of 5 per cent last year, whereas the average hedge fund lost more than 18 per cent.

There is no real mystery about that, and nothing strikingly novel. In a bull market, all kinds of clever, debt-fuelled strategies make money. In a bear market, only a very few, very gutsy investors survive. The money managers who can get away from the herd, who do their own research, who don’t mind taking contrary positions and, most of all, get their timing right, are the ones who do well in tumbling markets. Any successful financier over the past couple of centuries could have made the same point. But the lessons are re-learnt in each business cycle. And the people who learn them best become the voices to be listened to for the next cycle — which is why we can expect to hear a lot more of the likes of Paulson, BlueGold and Mulvaney in the years to come.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/print/the-magazine/business/3346121/the-men-who-called-the-markets-right.thtml

Trades Taken Post

2009-02-12T23:14:00.000-08:00

You would have noticed the new "trades taken" column on the right

1. Instead of giving % gain or loss, I will switch to dollar value due to SGX minimum bid sizing

2. Reasons for trades taken, exit and mistakes made will be made I guess once a week or twice, depending on frequency of it

Wilmar@3.11

-Anticipation of failure of breakout of uptrendline

First short was done at 3.14 with decending triangle on intraday chart, initially wan to short more at 3.11 but impatient when it breakdown to 3.08, avg 3.11 Covering done at 3.04 was right for breakeven but 3.05 was mistake when wanting it to run.

SGX@3.21

-Anticipation of breakout of trading range

Price hovering near breakout line but tradeback, should wait for volume to pickup

Biosensors@0.38

-Weak volume breakout, reaching upper band of bollinger band

Short nicely at 0.38, cover for breakeven at 0.37, leave rest to run. Note: must be cautious as counter on short-term uptrend, target will be 0.35 for 20MA

Sembcorp@2.15

Anticipating breakdown of support, lower highs (is a hedge against SGX due to whipsaws)

Market Review

2009-02-11T19:39:00.000-08:00

Can the S&P support hold? next stop will be 800 and Nov low will be threatening.

Asian Markets have a wide discrepancy to the US, and looking at the STI weekly below, we can see we have been ranging for 2mths. First hurdle to cross will be the 20MA, to see whether it is a basing actions.

Market Updates

2009-02-08T23:28:00.000-08:00

As expected, market drifts for the last couple of days, US S&P forms a symmetrical triangle which is usually a continuation price action, Nov low of 750 or Dow 7,500 will be in danger of breaching. That level will put US index below 2002/2003 bottom and severly damages the technical picture.

On a brighter note, Asians mkt although has breached the uptrend line but (HSI, Nikkei, STI, SSE) had held their higher lows. Price level for us to watch will be STI 1,575 which will give raise to the chance of forming a new low.

Mixed Pic

2009-02-02T19:19:00.000-08:00

Its pretty much a mixed pic, market feel like breaking down mood but i guessed the impending news are holding them back. But what is more puzzling are US are near its low but asians mkt are holding its higher low though not making any new high.

Levels to watch in STI are 1,588 support, 1,800 as resistance and the uptrendline.

I am Bearish but surprised

2009-01-29T17:13:00.000-08:00

Market Review

2009-01-28T19:28:00.000-08:00

==============Comments===============================

Capitaland rights issue has been circulating for some weeks now.
C-Land, at $2.36, is trading at a large 34% discount to book NTA of $3.60 per share, which in turn raises the following questions:-
As at end Sept ’08, C-Land has total Borrowings of $10,440.5 mln; $4,209.66 mln Cash and $10,767.0 mln of Shareholders Funds.
Singapore reits are likely to take the cue from their counterparts in the US, who are expected to pay dividends with shares rather than cash, having been given the go-ahead by the US internal Revenue Service (our equivalent of IRA). By so doing, the US Reits are expected to save US10bln which can be used to pay down their borrowings. The banks would put pressure on S-Reits to do so, especially those with much refinancing to do this year. One strategy is to wait for someone to take the lead, before taking a more aggressive stance in picking up S-Reits. =================================================================
Technically, still trapped within 50EMA and downtrend line, my guess we will drift a while.

Introduction to Trading - Course

2009-01-28T01:16:00.000-08:00

May I present the following:

Introduction to Trading and Risk Management

Introduction

Components in trading
Fallacies of the market and the right psychology

Expectacy Ratio

Trade Management
2-2 Management

Position Sizing
Trade Journal
Put to practice

One-to-one course, or group over a session of 3hours.

50+ ppt slides with descriptions and notes

Venue at office or customer chosen locations.

Course fee is $128 and timing based on customer's schedule. Interested parties please contact me at 90402317 or email to kargay@gmail.com

Technical Analysis
I will be able to conduct but prefer it to be covered by my friend http://www.rallyartist.com/. Unless requested, course fee will be on a case-by-case basis.

New look

2009-01-16T23:38:00.000-08:00

Going to change the look of the blog soon,

going to brainstorm a bit and throw in some ideas

1. Intro
2. Blogs I read
3. Newsletter
4. Opening bell, trades of the week,
5. Research
6. My courses

feedback pls.. if anyone out there is still reading..